This data summary covers COVID-19 in Alaska from Sunday, July 12th through Saturday, July 18th, 2020. 

Background

The Alaska COVID-19 Weekly Case Update will be finalized every weekend with data from the previous week and the report will be published by the following Wednesday. Data are continually updated on the AK DHSS Data Hub, which reflects the most current case counts. This summary presents data from the previous week and is a snapshot of the information available on known cases at the time. 

Highlights

· Total cases in Alaska residents have risen by more than a quarter in this week alone

·  We see community transmission occurring in almost every business type that involves in-person interaction

·  Alaskans are acquiring the virus from many types of social gatherings: backyard barbecues, funerals, weddings, children's sporting events, camps, churches and any time groups gather with others outside their household

·  Fairbanks has had very high rates of test positivity, reflecting widespread community transmission

·   The majority of new cases are among Alaskans aged 20-29, with cases among Alaskans in their 20s and 30s rising sharply

·  Most nonresident cases have been identified before the person had significant community interaction, so most new cases in Alaskans are acquired from other Alaskans who have not traveled

·  Hospital capacity remains adequate

·  With current rates of physical distancing, face covering use and other measures to prevent transmission, cases are expected to continue to rise rapidly 

·  Alaskans should avoid gatherings with non-household members, wear face coverings in public, keep six feet of distance from non household members and practice good hand hygiene to slow transmission of COVID-19 

New cases

This week saw 399 new cases in Alaskans and 104 in nonresidents, for a total of 1,874 and 403 respectively. 6 Alaskans required hospitalization this week for COVID-19, for a total of 99 since the epidemic began. One additional death was reported this week, for a total of 18. By convention, deaths are counted based on the residency of the patient rather than where they contracted the virus. 

Communities affected this week 

New cases were found in Alaskans who are residents of the following communities:

·         Anchorage (184), Chugiak (6), Eagle River (14), and Girdwood (1), for a total of 205 new cases in the Anchorage Municipality

·         Fairbanks (58) and North Pole (6), for a total of 64 new cases in the Fairbanks North Star Borough

·         Kenai (5), Seward (7), Soldotna (18), Homer (2), Nikiski (2), Sterling (2) and smaller communities (4), for a total of 40 new cases in the Kenai Peninsula Borough

·         Wasilla (28), Palmer (7), Willow (1), Sutton-Alpine (1), and Meadow Lakes (1) for a total of 37 new cases in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough

·         Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area (16)

·         Juneau (11)

·         Valdez-Cordova Census Area (9)

·         Utqiagvik (2)

·         Ketchikan (2)

·         Sitka (2)

·         Bristol Bay plus Lake and Peninsula Census Area (2)

·         Kotzebue (1) and one in a smaller community, for a total of 2 new cases in the Northwest Arctic Borough

·         Bethel (1) and one in a smaller community, for a total of 2 new cases in the Bethel Census Area

·         Southeast Fairbanks Census Area (1)

·         Nome Census Area (1)

·         Haines (1)

·         Kusilvak Census Area (1)

·         Kodiak (1)

 Case rates and alert levels

The 7 day case rate map depicts cases adjusted by population for a given region (cases per 100,000 people). The regions are large because Alaska is a large state with few densely populated centers, so this case rate can only be meaningful across large regions. Currently, the Interior region with the exception of Fairbanks North Star Borough has the highest new case rates in Alaska, averaging 15.8 new cases daily per 100,000 people. Next, Fairbanks North Star Borough, Kenai Peninsula Borough and Anchorage Municipality had 9.4, 9.8 and 9.0 new cases daily per 100,000 people this week.  Juneau City and Borough has the next highest rates, at 4.91. Most states use a 7 day case rate per 100,000 population to estimate trends in community transmission. Roughly, rates of >10 cases daily per 100,000 population correspond to widespread community transmission and >5 to moderate community transmission, but a sharp increase or decrease in these rates can help predict how the next week or weeks will look for the region.